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French and German leaders suggest bloc should reduce military reliance on US
The leaders of France and Germany have called on the European Union to build a “more united, stronger and more sovereign” continent in the face of Donald Trump’s historic election victory in the United States.
EU leaders fear that Trump’s return to the White House could jeopardise American support for Ukraine and even lead to Washington pulling out of Nato, stripping Europe of the security umbrella it has enjoyed since the end of the Second World War.
On Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, and Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, held crisis talks after it became clear that Trump would return to the White House.
“I have just spoken with the chancellor,” Mr Macron said. “We will work towards a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context – by cooperating with the United States of America and defending our interests and our values.”
Mr Scholz stressed that he was ready to work with Trump, as did Mr Macon, who fell out with the Republican candidate during his first term.
“For a long time, Germany and the US have been working together successfully promoting prosperity and freedom on both sides of the Atlantic. We will continue to do so for the wellbeing of our citizens,” Mr Scholz said.
Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary general, congratulated Trump on his victory, amid fears he would carry out threats to pull out of the Alliance unless European nations ramped up their defence spending.
“His leadership will again be key to keeping our Alliance strong,” Mr Rutte said in comments designed to flatter the often unpredictable President-elect.
European leaders, including Mr Rutte, will meet in Hungary’s capital, Budapest, on Thursday and Friday for summit talks that will now be dominated by the fallout from Trump’s astonishing election victory.
Sir Keir Starmer will also attend Thursday’s European Political Community Summit of EU and non-EU leaders before the bloc’s heads of state and government hold separate talks over dinner and on Friday.
The Prime Minister said: “I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”
Mr Macron has long warned the bloc can no longer rely on the US for its security and must go further down the path of EU integration so it can act independently of Washington on the world stage.
In 2019 the French president said Nato was experiencing “brain death” and could no longer rely on Washington, which Trump described as a “nasty” and “very dangerous” statement for him to make.
Mr Macron’s calls for “strategic autonomy” have been heard by the European Commission, which wants to boost Europe’s arms manufacturing base and plans to roll out joint procurement of weapons over the next five years.
Brussels has also worked to deepen ties with Nato to quell fears by Baltic member states that a common EU defence policy could undermine the military Alliance by creating a competitor.
Earlier this week, Luc Frieden, the prime minister of Luxembourg, said the EU should discuss creating a European army in the face of a possible Trump victory, Russian aggression and the war in Ukraine.
Such plans would face many obstacles and take many years but Mr Frieden suggested a step-by-step approach with a coalition of willing counties pooling their forces.
Before the election, Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister and a Trump critic, said Europe had to take responsibility for its own security.
“Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us. On condition Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength. Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over,” he said.
After the vote, he congratulated Trump on social media and said: “I look forward to our cooperation.”
Diplomatic sources previously suggested a Trump victory would heavily influence EU budget negotiations next year, as contingency planning for the loss of billions from Washington.
According to the Kiel Institute, the US has provided aid worth a total of €84.73 billion (£71.21 billion) to Ukraine since it was invaded in February 2022, including €56.8 billion in military provisions.
Europe, including non-EU countries, has provided €118.2 billion, but that has been mostly financial rather than military aid to Ukraine, which is a candidate country to join the bloc.
The EU defence industry cannot currently replace vital US weapon supplies to Ukraine but the commission will hope to ramp it up in a similar way to how it boosted vaccine production during the coronavirus pandemic.
Brussels sources speculated a deal could be done with Trump where the EU buys US weapons, which would then either be sent to Kyiv or replace stocks of older European arms, which would be delivered to the Ukrainians.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, told Trump his country needed the weapons supplies.
“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer,” he said.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since the invasion. She and other EU leaders have vowed to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”.
But there are fears that EU unity could splinter if Trump tries to force Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in an unjust peace deal with Hungary and Slovakia already calling for an end to the war and EU sanctions on the Kremlin.
The former German defence minister “warmly” congratulated Trump and said the EU and US were “more than just allies”.
However, her statement also carried a coded warning to the President-elect not to carry out his threat of hitting EU imports with a 10 per cent tariff. Brussels has prepared a list of iconic US products for retaliatory tariffs, which could trigger a trade war.
“Let us work together on a transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver for our citizens. Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship,” Mrs von der Leyen said in a warning that a trade war would also hurt the US economy.
Trump, who has branded the EU a “mini-China”, believes the bloc is ripping off Americans by running trade surpluses with the US, and using the money to fund social policies rather than on defence.
His antipathy towards the EU was made clear in his first term, when he praised the UK’s vote for Brexit.
The US is Germany’s major trading partner and the country fears that Mr Trump’s promise to impose tariffs could end the era of globalisation that has driven German wealth over decades.
Popular weekly newspaper Die Zeit led its website on Wednesday with the one-word expletive: “F—”.
Der Spiegel, the country’s major political magazine, led its website with the headline “The Trump shock”, while conservative daily Die Welt claimed that “a new era in time” has begun.
Not all European leaders were dismayed by Trump’s comeback.
Diplomats and analysts believe that Giorgia Meloni is well placed to act as a mediator between Mr Trump and the EU.
The Right-wing Italian prime minister is close to Trump-supporting tycoon Elon Musk and has made cracking down on illegal immigration a central aspect of her political brand, much like the president-elect.
“Italy and the United States are ‘sister’ nations, linked by an unshakable alliance, common values, and a historic friendship. It is a strategic bond, which I am sure we will now strengthen even further,” she said.
Viktor Orban, he Hungarian prime minister, has close ties to Trump and US conservatives, although his criticism of EU sanctions on Russia has made him unpopular in Brussels.
Mr Orban, Putin’s closest ally in the EU, has predicted Trump will end the Ukraine war soon after returning to power and is expected to hail the victory at the Budapest summits he is hosting.
“The biggest comeback in US political history! Congratulations to President @realDonaldTrump on his enormous win. A much-needed victory for the World,” he said.
Geert Wilders, another Eurosceptic hard-Right politician, who won last year’s general election in the Netherlands, said: “Congratulations President Trump […] never stop, always keep fighting and win elections!”
Worryingly for Mr Zelensky, Russian officials welcomed Mr Trump’s victory and hinted they could be open to negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, said: “‘Trump has one useful quality for us: as a businessman to the core, he mortally dislikes spending money on various hangers-on and stupid hanger-on allies, on bad charity projects and on voracious international organisations.”
EU leaders are expected to welcome Mr Trump’s victory and call for continued transatlantic cooperation in their summit conclusions on Friday, a senior official said.
Matthew Savill, military sciences director at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said both Ukraine and its allies can expect uncertainty after Trump’s victory.
Trump’s desire for a deal, likely a quick one, “does not bode well for sustained US support”, Mr Savill said, especially given the rate at which Russian troops have advanced in recent weeks.
The UK Ministry of Defence estimated that Russian troops had advanced about six miles in the Donetsk region in the past week.
“Trump will have to contend with Congress, but there is significant scepticism about Ukraine amongst many Republicans, and a general US focus towards China,” Mr Savill said.